Sources: oil supply from the EIA (crude oil + condensate); proven reserves, oil prices and domestic consumption from BP statistical review (2007); population from the UN; oil discoveries from IHS.
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Chart of the Day
Sources: oil supply from the EIA (crude oil + condensate); proven reserves, oil prices and domestic consumption from BP statistical review (2007); population from the UN; oil discoveries from IHS.
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4 comments:
Wow, great chart.
That is a cool chart -- S.A. reveals a plot of reserves as flat (which they can conjure up) while at the same time showing that spike in rig count (which can never be kept a secret).
Great graphic. What this site does best: conveys info with impact.
Can you post this graphic over at the Oil Drum?
Two items of note on this chart, for me, right now:
1) When prices are rising, consumption increases faster than population growth. This does not bode well for a supply constrained world. Taking the correlation between the delta in per capita consumption and the delta in price would be bery, bery interesting.
2) Rig counts jumped in the early nineties, and production stayed flat. Rig counts spiked again in 96-97, and production stayed flat. Rig counts nearly doubled from 99 to 01, and production stayed flat. Rigs counts soared after 2005, and the jury is still out. I am assuming a 36 month lag between rigs and production.
3) One point that is missing from the diagram: reserves per capita. This might go to the stability of the Saudi regime, long term. Those numbers cannot be very good right now, for they are moving quickly in the wrong direction. Attached to that number might be the expected lifetime consumption of a Saudi, given the trends on the chart.
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