tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21593296.post8323821663796881843..comments2008-04-01T15:29:24.200-04:00Khebabhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18250952707070950440noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21593296.post-1595011118362408872008-04-01T15:29:00.000-04:002008-04-01T15:29:00.000-04:00Hello!<BR/><BR/>As i told in peak-oil-forum today,<BR/>i think that the work is great.<BR/><BR/>But it is not realistic to plot an annual growth of demand in the exporting countries, while the worlds supply is declining.<BR/><BR/>If PO comes or has already come, it will have deep impacts to worlds economy. So we might see an crisis equal or worse to 1973. In this period the demand sank and reached its place a decade later again.<BR/><BR/>Even if no worldwide crisis will follow PO, which would lead to a decline or even stayatpoint of the demand, some countries may export oil, while cutting the supply for their own people. The reason may be their need of money from export, the fear of military actions, or military actions themselves.<BR/><BR/>It is surely not thinkable, that the own demand of exporting countries will increase continuosly while the whole other countries face an overwhelming economic crisis.<BR/><BR/>Both are bad scenarios, but as i always tell at peak-oil-forum, they can not occur both at the same time. <BR/><BR/>So i want to thank the authors for their great work, but the own demand of the exporting countries might be plot at the same level for the next future.<BR/><BR/>If the PO-communitiy will continuously publish both ideas, of economic crisis AND growing own demand in exporting countries, our enemies will only have to laugh about us.<BR/><BR/>We should think the idea as afr as it fits to reality<BR/><BR/>MFG<BR/><BR/>belerophonbelerophonhttp://www.peak-oil-forum.denoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21593296.post-33777330969087069042008-01-11T11:07:00.000-05:002008-01-11T11:07:00.000-05:00Thanks for posting this very info-dense article! I will never turn my TV on again if people like you continue to crank out real data and real news. You are making things better than they might otherwise be, at least for this reader.JoeFourPacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21593296.post-47533796663724596582008-01-10T00:54:00.000-05:002008-01-10T00:54:00.000-05:00Thank you both for this valuable work. <BR/><BR/>I hope you can do a follow-up article that incorporates the comments by "anon" - ("higher prices do not necessarily trigger a lower worldwide consumption") - as well as your own phases 1 and 2.<BR/><BR/>We need as many voices as possible to counter the "market will solve it" argument. While this belief is only one of many, it's one that seems especially popular.Aninoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21593296.post-46867985643199283482008-01-09T15:56:00.000-05:002008-01-09T15:56:00.000-05:00I think that we are definitely going to see a positive feedback loop in exporting countries, and I have suggested a Phase One and Phase Two decline in net oil exports.<BR/><BR/>In Phase One, cash flow from export sales would increase, even as export volumes fall, because of rising oil prices.<BR/><BR/>In Phase Two, rising oil prices can't offset the decline in export volumes. <BR/><BR/>In a Phase One, it will be extremely difficult for exporters to be able to curtail domestic demand.Jeffrey J. Brownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21593296.post-75665815108477857012008-01-09T05:09:00.000-05:002008-01-09T05:09:00.000-05:00Interesting graphs. <BR/>An interpretation is that with peak oil, oil prices are increasing and revenue per capita increases in exporting countries. This money is, in part, used to buy more oil derivatives. Even more when gasoline is subsidized, a frequent feature in oil producing countries. <BR/><BR/>This is a vicious circle, where higher oil prices fuel consumption in producing countries which in turn makes oil market more tight. Also, this phenomenon means the price to consumption elasticity is positive in producing countries, i.e. opposite to the usual behaviour. <BR/><BR/>Then, considering the worldwide consumption, it means that higher prices do not necessarily trigger a lower worldwide consumption.<BR/><BR/>Scary.<BR/><BR/>peakoil 'at' club 'dot' frAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21593296.post-59004984428486864712008-01-08T12:49:00.000-05:002008-01-08T12:49:00.000-05:00As always, great work from you both and convincing.<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately not enough vengeful god rhetoric for doomers and not enough indication of capital loss for wish upon a star market believers.<BR/>As far as 'why it can't be done now'? The men that laid those rails were made of steel , what can one expect from cellulite man? <BR/><BR/>CRAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com